Dinamika Ekspor–Impor dan Harga Minyak Mentah sebagai Penggerak Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of exports, imports, and global oil prices on Indonesia’s economic growth over the period from 2011 to 2024. A quantitative approach is employed by applying the Error Correction Model to analyze the dynamics of both short-term and long-term relationships. The information was obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics, Investing, and other relevant sources, and was analyzed using the EViews 13 software to produce accurate and measurable estimates. The results of the study indicate that all variables do not exhibit a significant influence on economic growth in the long term. This suggests that the Indonesian economy is capable of gradually adjusting to external shocks through structural flexibility and market adaptation processes. Conversely, in the short term, exports, imports, and international oil prices show negative effects on economic growth, although these effects are not statistically significant. The significant coefficient of the Error Correction Term at the one percent level demonstrates the existence of a rapid adjustment process that restores the economy toward long-term equilibrium. These findings emphasize that changes in international trade and instability in global oil prices primarily exert economic pressure in the near term, while long-term stability depends heavily on the economy’s adaptive capacity and resilience. The results of this study can serve as a guideline for formulating trade and energy policies aimed at reducing the impact of external shocks on economic growth.